Several states in India have begun to witness a rise in fresh COVID-19 cases, after experiencing a period of low. Though the number of cases is not alarming, it does ask all of us to be cautious. With the onset of winters, annual rise in air pollution levels, and a lineup of festivals, it would not be incorrect to say that India lays in a very precarious position. A position where ignorance could cause COVID-19 cases to stampede through and rampage an economy which is still recuperating from the aftermath of the first two waves of COVID.

Delhi especially during the winter months experiences increased levels of particulate matter in the air. Pollution levels peak every year during the winters, when agricultural waste burning, fumes from vehicles, industries and brick kilns combine with smoke from firecrackers during diwali, to create a toxic soup. 

In our previous article, Air Pollution Can Aggravate COVID-19 Infections, we have written extensively about how researchers have established a link between exposure to polluted air and COVID-19. As per IQAir, a Swiss air technology company, thirty six of the world’s 50 most polluted cities are in India, with Delhi being ranked the most polluted capital city globally. According to a preliminary paper, ‘The Causal Effects of Long-Term PM2.5 Exposure on COVID-19 in India’ published by the World Bank, 1% increase in long-term exposure to the particulate matter present in the air leads to 5.7% increase in COVID-19 related deaths in India. 

Air pollution plays two equally insidious roles during the pandemic. First, it weakens the immune system, making people more susceptible to COVID-19 infection. Second, the PM 2.5 particles in the atmosphere act as carriers for the virus which offers an opportunity for the virus to linger longer in the environment. As per a research conducted by the School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University in China, during the beginning of the pandemic, COVID-19 cases were clustered at temperature and humidity levels ranging between 27-32 degrees celsius and 25%-45% respectively. The fact that the city of Delhi falls under this temperature range is threatening, and when you couple it with bad quality of air, the city can witness an unstoppable proliferation of COVID-19 cases. In addition, the fact that India is currently under festive mood with markets being thronged and over crowded with buyers, breaching all COVID-19 guidelines and protocols. This is a precarious situation that puts India in an ominous role and can exacerbate COVID-19 infections.

Ahead of the festival season, the National Disaster Management Authority had prohibited public gatherings, but the guidelines have fallen on deaf ears. Images of Indians across several states can be seen rampaging the markets, and flouting all health guidelines. Bengal, Assam, and Himachal Pradesh showed a spike in COVID-19 infections last week after the Durga Puja and Dussehra celebrations, as per media reports. On Saturday, 23 October, Bengal reported 974 fresh cases, which was its highest single-day count in over three months since 10 July. The daily case count had also been over 800 since 19 October.

Bengal had registered 5,560 fresh cases last week, which was up by 28.4% over the previous seven days when the state had 4,329 cases. The rise could have been due to the Durga Puja festivities. The last seven days’ count was also 10.4% higher than the one three weeks ago (5,038).

Assam saw a 50.4% increase in cases last week, having detected 2,187 new infections compared to 1,454 cases in the previous week. In the same time period, Himachal Pradesh saw a spike of 38.4%. The state recorded 1,265 cases compared to 914 in the previous week. On Saturday, the state had reported 257 cases, which was its highest in over a month.

The central government ahead of the festivals had written to the Chief Secretaries and Administrators of all the States and Union Territories on ensuring adherence to Covid-19 appropriate behaviour. In response, State governments have imposed regulations in their respective States. State governments and UT administrations have taken appropriate adherence and containment measures to maintain strict vigil and curb the spread of the infections. 

However, the challenge is behavioural because it is the people who need to understand the importance of following regulations. Social distancing is the antithesis of celebrating festivals, but given the scenario, it is the only way. The nature of this disease and the precautions required to be taken must be widely understood. Being vigilant and cautious is the only way to curb this disease.